Trusted allies or friends with benefits? Instrumental ambivalence in Filipinos’ public appraisal of China

ABSTRACT

This paper examines how citizens in asymmetric relationships evaluate powerful states that simultaneously present economic opportunities and strategic risks. Focusing on the Philippines, we distinguish between perceptions of dependability, understood as expectations of consistent behaviour, and trust, defined as beliefs about long-term intentions under uncertainty. Drawing on seven waves of nationally representative survey conducted between early 2023 and mid-2024, we argue that these evaluations are anchored in domestic foreign policy performance, which serves as a key interpretive lens in the absence of direct access to diplomatic processes or foreign intentions. Our findings reveal a pattern of instrumental ambivalence. Higher satisfaction with government performance is associated with lower perceptions of China’s dependability but higher levels of trust in its long-term trajectory. This divergence reflects attribution to domestic competence alongside greater willingness to engage under perceived state capacity, highlighting the multidimensional nature of public attitudes under asymmetry.

DOI
STATUS N/A
TYPE Journal Article
AUTHORS Panao, R. A. L., & S. Rye, R. (2026). Australian Journal of International Affairs, 1–26.
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